Poker Guideline 1.0: "PLAY TIGHT..."

Playing "tight but aggressive" is a general strategy, which obviously makes it contingent on the circumstances of each particular hand you're in. But I believe tight-but-aggressive is the strongest default approach to each hand, and the best way to achieve the ultimate goal in poker: Maximizing your winnings when you have the best hand, and minimizing your losses when you don't. Today, I'd like to describe the "tight" half of that maxim, which is best summed up as:

"FOLD EARLY, FOLD OFTEN."

Like the song says, "You got to... know when to fold 'em." Playing tight means entering few hands. If you're staying in too many hands -- playing loose -- then you're foolishly bleeding money. If you're going to err on one side or the other, it's better to err on the side of tightness than looseness. Unfortunately for them, most people err on the latter side, and die a death by a thousand cuts -- or bets.

You must let this sink in: Folding is not a sign of weakness. It is, instead, a sign of wisdom. Folding is the most crucial decision you can make in the game of poker. And the earlier you fold, the better. Statistically, the more hands you stay out of, the lower your chances of losing money on a bad decision later in the hand.

Let's run through the crucial decision points in Texas Hold'em as an example. (For now, we'll only talk about whether you should stay in the hand. We'll get to calling and raising later.)

POCKET CARDS: Possibilities, Position, & Patience
1. Possibilities: The first crucial decision is what to do with your two hole cards. Generally, you should only stay in the hand if you're looking at: (1) a pair (the higher the better), (2) suited connectors (again, higher is better), or (3) a face-card/lower-card combination (preferably suited and within striking distance of a straight). If you have one of these combinations, then consider staying in the hand. If you don't, then fold immediately.

Yet, having one of those three possibilities is not reason enough to stay in the hand. If someone else in the hand is betting big on their own hole cards, odds are that they have a high hand as well. If you see some big bets, then you'd better have something really good to stay in. Unfortunately, most people refuse to fold in the face of big bets, simply because they've become wedded to what appears to be a good starting hand.

2. Position: Location, location, location. Position matters a great deal in the first round of betting. If you're one of the last to bet in a hand, then you've already had a chance to watch to see how everyone else has bet, and you're in a position to fold if you've seen some big bets from others.

However, if you're among the first to act, then you're at a huge disadvantage. The first player to act hasn't seen anyone's bet yet. Imagine that you're first to act, and you call on a moderate hand, Jack-9 suited. You're opening yourself up to a situation where one of many players betting after you decides to raise big-time. Unless he's bluffing (unlikely, since he's seen you call and assumes you have at least something good), I'd put the him on a high pair, say, Queens. At that point, you could stay in and hope for a lucky Flop, but you'd be smart to fold.

Of course, you may be "smart" to fold at that point, but you're no genius -- because you should've folded in first position to begin with, and avoid losing the money you called with.

The point is, you should bet differently depending on your position at the table in each hand. For the hands where you're among the first to bet, you should play even more tightly. If you're among the last to bet (particularly if you're the Dealer, Small Blind, or Big Blind), then you have the advantage, and you can play (slightly) more loosely -- and aggressively (which we'll get to tomorrow).

3. Patience: It's crucial to be patient. Too many players get impatient after they find themselves getting shitty hole cards a dozen times in a row, and so they decide to bet on their thirteenth shitty hand, and then wind up losing. You must be patient, and wait for the good cards to come to you. Everyone's luck evens out in the long-run.

THE FLOP: Draws & Sunk Costs
The Flop is where folding becomes really important, because five of the seven cards you'll have to make a hand have now been dealt. In other words, more than 70 percent of the cards are on the table, either in your pocket or on the board. At this point, if you don't "have it" -- either a good hand or a really solid draw -- then get out. Now. Otherwise, statistics are working against you.

1. If You're on a Draw: If you're on a draw, and already have four of the five cards you need to make a good hand -- say, a straight or flush -- there certainly is a strong temptation to stay in for the Turn. However, you should still strongly consider folding right now, on the Flop, particularly if: (1) someone is betting big at this point, (2) you can see some potentially good hands on the board, and/or (3) there are still a lot of players in the hand.

If someone is betting big, then they probably found what they were looking for on the Flop -- especially if you can see some powerful possibilities on the board (say, three suited cards). You'd better be damn sure that you run through all the possibilities in those Flop cards that might help your opponents. And if there are a lot of players calling or raising, that simply increases the chances that one or more of them "connected" with something powerful on the Flop. Bad news for you, unless you've connected too.

And, before you decide to chase a draw, keep this in mind: Statistically, the odds are low that what you're trying to draw toward will pan out.

2. If You flopped a Real Hand: Obviously there is an even stronger temptation to stay in the hand if connected, but the same considerations detailed above apply. If someone else is betting big, and there are cards on the table that could make up a hand that can beat what you're sitting on, then strongly consider folding.

3. Sunk Costs: The Flop is where many people make the classic, irrational, money-losing decision: "Well, I've already put so much money in the pot, I might as well stay in now." They believe they're pot-committed, so they call a bet that they shouldn't, simply because the believe they've already "invested" so much in the hand.

Bullshit. Stop and think. If you bought a lot of Enron stock, and then lost your shirt when the scandal broke, do you honestly believe that buying more Enron stock will help you get your money back?

The answer is Yes only if you believe that Enron's stock will rise again in the future. The same reasoning applies to poker. What you've already put into the pot is irrelevant to whether you should continue to put money into the pot. The money you've already bet is GONE -- sunk. You can't win it back unless you win the hand.

And that's the question: Are your odds of winning the hand greater than the amount that you're being asked to call relative to the pot? If Yes, then stay in. If No, then get out. Adding more losses to the pot won't help you get your money back, and hoping that the Turn or River will turn out the one card you might need to win is a fool's hope -- one that only materializes, on average, 7 percent of the time.

THE TURN & RIVER: Late Folds & Bad Beats
1. Late Folds: The simple fact is, if you're folding on the Turn or River card, then in most circumstances, you're folding much too late. You're playing too loose. In general, you should only be folding on the Turn or River if you coasted through the Flop cheaply, and then didn't reach what you were drawing for on the Turn/River, and then someone starts betting big. Get out, and don't lose any more money.

2. Bad Beats: Of course, there are situations where you Flopped a great hand (say, a straight), rightly stayed in for the Turn, and then all the sudden a the Turn cards reveals a more powerful hand possible for your opponent (say, a flush). And then, your opponent starts betting big, indicating that he does, in fact, have the flush. Tomorrow, I'll talk about how to reduce the chances of that happening, but for right now, it's probably a good idea to go ahead and fold -- assuming that you really believe that your opponent actually has the flush. Just remember to ignore sunk costs, chalk it up to a bad beat, and move on.